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定义： 是把心理学和经济学相结合的学科，研究人们的行为如何系统性地偏离经济学传统的“理性人”假设。

例

损失厌恶
时间偏好
社会性偏好
概率判断偏误


发展历史

亚当·斯密时代
1759">
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                        杨公政
                    
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                <h2 id="《行为经济学》笔记"><a href="#《行为经济学》笔记" class="headerlink" title="《行为经济学》笔记"></a>《行为经济学》笔记</h2><h4 id="一、课程综述"><a href="#一、课程综述" class="headerlink" title="一、课程综述"></a>一、课程综述</h4><h6 id="行为经济学简介"><a href="#行为经济学简介" class="headerlink" title="行为经济学简介"></a>行为经济学简介</h6><ul>
<li><p>定义： 是把心理学和经济学相结合的学科，研究人们的行为如何系统性地偏离经济学传统的“理性人”假设。</p>
</li>
<li><p>例</p>
<ul>
<li>损失厌恶</li>
<li>时间偏好</li>
<li>社会性偏好</li>
<li>概率判断偏误</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>发展历史</p>
<ul>
<li>亚当·斯密时代<ul>
<li>1759《道德情操论》</li>
<li>1776《国富论》</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>新古典经济学时代<ul>
<li>20世纪：理性人假设、经济学数学化</li>
<li>行为经济学艰难发展</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>大数据时代<ul>
<li>2008年金融危机的转折</li>
<li>大数据时代的繁荣</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>意义</p>
<ul>
<li>对个人：意识到自己在经济决策中可能产生的行为错误，意识到就是修正最重要的一步</li>
<li>对企业：在大数据时代为分析海量数据提供全面系统的理论指导<ul>
<li>从人的心理特征和决策机制出发，而不是从简单人口学背景出发</li>
<li>人的行为偏误有一贯性，可以用来预测其他方面的行为</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>对宏观经济政策：好的行为政策具有成本可忽略而效果显著的特点<h6 id="理性与非理性行为"><a href="#理性与非理性行为" class="headerlink" title="理性与非理性行为"></a>理性与非理性行为</h6></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>理性人假设</p>
<ul>
<li>完备性</li>
<li>传递性：保证了选择的一致性</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>非理性行为</p>
<ul>
<li><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>新古典经济学理性人假设（狭义）</th>
<th>行为经济学假设（行为偏误）</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody><tr>
<td>只在乎自己的绝对收益</td>
<td>参照点比较与损失厌恶、社会性比较</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>计划和执行一致</td>
<td>执行偏离计划（自我控制问题、过度消费、拖沓）</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>只在乎自己的利益</td>
<td>复杂的社会性偏好（利他、公平、信任、互惠、报复、愧疚、诚实等）</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>对概率事件准确判断</td>
<td>概率判断错误（赌徒谬误、热手谬误、过度自信等）</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><p>严谨系统的经济学框架</p>
<ul>
<li><p>实验室实验</p>
<ul>
<li>采取对照组和实验组来观察在不同的条件下人的决策会有什么样的改变</li>
<li>好处：可以用非常干净的环境来排除其他的影响因素，确定这是心理决策机制造成的</li>
<li>坏处：小样本的结论能否复制导更大的人群，以及实验室的结论能不能复制到真实的决策环境中</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>田野实验</p>
<ul>
<li>把实验室搬到真实的决策情境中</li>
<li>好处：结论具有非常准确的因果性关系</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>人的真实决策数据（大数据）</p>
<ul>
<li>决策可能收到非常多的因素影响</li>
<li>确定是心理决策起到了重要因素，更考验学者的研究水平</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>结果：得到理论模型</p>
<ul>
<li><p>估计行为特征系数</p>
</li>
<li><p>跨情景预测行为</p>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="二、参照点"><a href="#二、参照点" class="headerlink" title="二、参照点"></a>二、参照点</h4><h6 id="参照点和损失厌恶"><a href="#参照点和损失厌恶" class="headerlink" title="参照点和损失厌恶"></a>参照点和损失厌恶</h6><ul>
<li>损失厌恶<ul>
<li>一单位的损失对人们的伤害往往甚于一单位的得到给人们制造的喜悦</li>
<li>前景理论：是关于参照点和损失厌恶的理论<ul>
<li>人会把自己的结果和某个参照点对比</li>
<li>人们害怕损失甚于喜欢得到——损失厌恶</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>损失厌恶的影响<ul>
<li>产生过度风险厌恶</li>
<li>不愿意在有损失的时候交易</li>
<li>产生设定目标的行为</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>股权溢价：股市汇报和无风险资产汇报，也可以认为是银行利率之间的差<ul>
<li>风险态度和决策视野</li>
<li>风险态度和参照点位置：参照点理论预测，当下状态离参照点的位置对风险态度有很大的状态<ul>
<li>离参照点近：极度风险厌恶</li>
<li>在参照点下面很多：风险厌恶程度降低（平损效应）</li>
<li>在参照点上面很多：风险厌恶程度降低（庄家资金效应）</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>损失厌恶会导致人们不愿意在有损失的时候交易，从而导致决策失误和财富减少</li>
</ul>
<h6 id="禀赋效应和处置效用"><a href="#禀赋效应和处置效用" class="headerlink" title="禀赋效应和处置效用"></a>禀赋效应和处置效用</h6><ul>
<li><p>禀赋效应</p>
<ul>
<li>一单位的损失/一单位的得到=损失厌恶系数   都比较稳定的在2周围</li>
<li>有经验的交易者禀赋效应会减弱</li>
<li>禀赋效应与参照点有关</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>处置效应</p>
<ul>
<li>是指在资产卖出决策中所产生的由于损失而不愿意交易的现象</li>
<li>应用：股市投资者更倾向于卖出赚的股票而持有赔的股票（赚和赔相对于购买价格）</li>
<li>衡量处置效应程度的方式：<ul>
<li>PGR=卖出赚的股票的数目/所有赚的股票的数目</li>
<li>PLR=卖出赔的股票的数目/所有赔的股票的数目</li>
<li>处置效应的程度=卖出赚的股票的比例/卖出赔的股票的比例=PGR/PLR</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h6 id="目标行为"><a href="#目标行为" class="headerlink" title="目标行为"></a>目标行为</h6><ul>
<li><p>人们往往喜欢设定目标作为参照点，而因为损失厌恶的存在使得人们有更多驱动力达到自己的参照点</p>
</li>
<li><p>参照点可以被影响以产生更大的生产效率</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="三、跨期决策不一致性"><a href="#三、跨期决策不一致性" class="headerlink" title="三、跨期决策不一致性"></a>三、跨期决策不一致性</h4><h6 id="当下享乐偏好"><a href="#当下享乐偏好" class="headerlink" title="当下享乐偏好"></a>当下享乐偏好</h6><ul>
<li><p>时间偏好</p>
<ul>
<li><p>一般把涉及到今天和未来的决策成为跨期决策，把这种选择背后的偏好成为时间偏好</p>
</li>
<li><p>时间偏好所涉及的决策很广</p>
</li>
<li><p>人们的时间偏好是跨期不一致的，即呈现当下享乐偏误</p>
</li>
<li><p>当下享乐偏好的影响</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th>新古典经济学假设（指数折现模型）</th>
<th>行为经济学假设（当下享乐偏好）</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody><tr>
<td>储蓄消费决策</td>
<td>适当消费、适当储蓄</td>
<td>过度消费、储蓄不足</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>计划与执行</td>
<td>计划与执行一致</td>
<td>执行偏离计划（拖沓、后悔）</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>自我限制</td>
<td>无自我限制需求</td>
<td>有自我限制需求（能意识到当下享乐偏误的人）</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>总结</p>
</li>
</ul>
<ol>
<li><p>行为经济学研究发现，人在进行跨期决策时候会过度夸大当下的享乐，因此凡是涉及当下的跨期选择会变得更不耐心</p>
</li>
<li><p>当下享乐导致人们非理性的过度消费，储蓄不足、拖沓、不能坚持自己的计划；如果自我意识到这个问题，会产生自我约束的需求</p>
</li>
</ol>
<h6 id="自我控制问题"><a href="#自我控制问题" class="headerlink" title="自我控制问题"></a>自我控制问题</h6><ul>
<li><p>非平滑性消费</p>
<ul>
<li>新古典经济学认为，理性人的消费模式应该是平滑消费<ul>
<li>消费的边际效用递减，消费得越多，额外的效应越少</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>当下享乐偏误<ul>
<li>会让你存不下钱，影响了未来资产增长或者是养老</li>
<li>让你消费发总效用收到了损失</li>
<li>它可能让你产生健康问题</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>计划和实施的不一致性</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h6 id="自我限制需求"><a href="#自我限制需求" class="headerlink" title="自我限制需求"></a>自我限制需求</h6><ul>
<li>决策者按是否意识到自己的时间偏好不一致分类<ul>
<li>幼稚决策者：在做计划或者跨期决策时无法意识到自己的当下享乐偏误，因而产生福利损失</li>
<li>成熟的决策者：通过以往经验能够意识到自己的当下享乐错误，并寻求自我限制机制以减轻问题</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>成熟的决策者的自我限制机制<ul>
<li>内在机制<ul>
<li>有各种内在的心理机制可能产生于自我限制需求</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>外在机制</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>如何解决当下享乐偏误<ul>
<li>意识到自己的当下享乐偏误是最重要的一步</li>
<li>给自己设置内在的或者外在的自我限制机制</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>自我限制机制产品不但有一定的市场需求，而且可以提升福利</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="四、社会性偏好"><a href="#四、社会性偏好" class="headerlink" title="四、社会性偏好"></a>四、社会性偏好</h4><h6 id="利他与公平"><a href="#利他与公平" class="headerlink" title="利他与公平"></a>利他与公平</h6><ul>
<li><p>社会性偏好：你如何对待他人</p>
<ul>
<li>主流经济学假设人是自私的，只在乎自己的利益</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>利他主义影响</p>
<ul>
<li>公共政策</li>
<li>与慈善捐款行业有关</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>不公平厌恶</p>
<ul>
<li>会影响企业的定价策略（价格粘性）</li>
<li>工资长期增长</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>总结</p>
<ul>
<li>行为经济学研究表明，很多时候人不是只在乎自己的利益，会呈现出复杂的社会性偏好</li>
<li>社会性偏好中的利他主义和不公平厌恶被证明广泛存在，而且影响人们的经济行为<h6 id="信任和互惠"><a href="#信任和互惠" class="headerlink" title="信任和互惠"></a>信任和互惠</h6></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>信任被认为是经济运行的润滑剂</p>
</li>
<li><p>信任与被信任</p>
<ul>
<li>信任更多来自于追求回报的预期，而被信任程度则是对于这种预期的回报</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>互惠</p>
<ul>
<li>正向互惠：你帮助了我，我也会帮助你</li>
<li>负向互惠：你伤害了我，我也会伤害你</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>总结</p>
<ul>
<li>信任与被信任程度可以得到量化衡量</li>
<li>互惠机制广泛影响人们生活决策。但是互惠机制的效果长期可能减弱</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h6 id="社会形象"><a href="#社会形象" class="headerlink" title="社会形象"></a>社会形象</h6><ul>
<li>人很多时候表现出来的善意和互惠行为，更多是处于社会形象的考虑</li>
<li>社会形象：我希望在其他人心里留下好的印象</li>
<li>小结<ul>
<li>人们的很多亲社会行为受到社会形象和社会压力的影响</li>
<li>社会形象的考虑在捐款中占据主要地位</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="五、概率判断错误"><a href="#五、概率判断错误" class="headerlink" title="五、概率判断错误"></a>五、概率判断错误</h4><h6 id="概率判断偏误"><a href="#概率判断偏误" class="headerlink" title="概率判断偏误"></a>概率判断偏误</h6><ul>
<li><p>概率判断</p>
<ul>
<li>我们经常需要对某件事情发生的概率或者某些事物的属性做出判断</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>忽略先验概率造成偏误（贝叶斯概率估计）</p>
</li>
<li><p>小数定理造成的偏误（错误的认为小样本应该服从大数定理）</p>
<ul>
<li><p>赌徒谬误</p>
<ul>
<li>大数定理的结论只有在大样本情况下才适用</li>
<li>对短期判断的错误</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>热手谬误</p>
<ul>
<li>当观测到很多小样本的情况下，实现值出现向一侧集中的现象，错误的认为概率发生了改变。</li>
<li>对长期判断的错误</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>小结</p>
<ul>
<li>人的概率判断会系统性偏离贝叶斯法则。人们往往会忽略先验概率，而在很小样本里面就期望样本均值达到期望值，导致产生了赌徒谬误和热手谬误<h6 id="过度自信"><a href="#过度自信" class="headerlink" title="过度自信"></a>过度自信</h6></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>概率判断还包括对自己的判断</p>
</li>
<li><p>人们往往产生过度自信的倾向</p>
<ul>
<li>过高估计自己的绝对成绩</li>
<li>过高估计自己的成绩在和他人相比中的排序</li>
<li>过高估计自己结论的准确度</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>小结</p>
<ul>
<li>人们往往对自己过度自信</li>
<li>过度自信会导致人们过度参与竞争、过度交易或者CEO过度从事兼并收购行为</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h6 id="投射错误"><a href="#投射错误" class="headerlink" title="投射错误"></a>投射错误</h6><ul>
<li>投射偏误<ul>
<li>指的是人们过度的使用当下的效用去感知去为未来做决策</li>
<li>人往往高估了未来的效应和当下效应的相似度</li>
<li>影响：会影响人们各式各样的购物决策，增加了反悔的概率</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="六、行为政策"><a href="#六、行为政策" class="headerlink" title="六、行为政策"></a>六、行为政策</h4><h6 id="基于行为经济学的政策设计"><a href="#基于行为经济学的政策设计" class="headerlink" title="基于行为经济学的政策设计"></a>基于行为经济学的政策设计</h6><ul>
<li><p>商业政策</p>
<ul>
<li><p>传统经济学认为，即便个体有决策偏误，市场会来纠正甚至消除这种偏误</p>
<ol>
<li>经验会降低偏误，因而市场竞争会逐步使人变得更加理性</li>
<li>非理性的人无法在市场存活</li>
</ol>
</li>
<li><p>市场对消费者的决策偏误的应对</p>
<ul>
<li>人能够通过学习降低自己的行为偏误变得更加的理性</li>
<li>每个人每次的损失可能是有限的，这不会使我们达到一个倾家荡产的地步</li>
<li>投资理性投资者用来偏离或者纠正这个非理性投资者的这种行为的工具是有限的</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>利用决策偏误的例子</p>
<ul>
<li>超市定价</li>
<li>健身房办卡</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>消除决策偏误的例子</p>
<ul>
<li>信用卡自动定期还款</li>
<li>自我限制性的理财产品</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><p>公共政策</p>
<ul>
<li>传统的政策大多基于理性人假设<ul>
<li>一般认为没有政策干预的必要</li>
<li>即使干预，也需要支付很大的成本才能改变人们的行为</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>行为经济学的政策认为人可能有非理性行为<ul>
<li>某些情况下有干预的必要</li>
<li>不需要支付很大成本就能通过机制设计改变人们的行为</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>行为经济学政策应用：自由管教政策<ul>
<li>不影响理性人的决策，让人们有选择的自由</li>
<li>帮助那些有行为错误的人改善决策</li>
<li>成本几乎可以忽略</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>

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                            ​       这篇日记本应该早早的写下的，但是直到过去了这几天后，我的心情才算平复下来。就记下这篇日记，作为自己下定决心考研离开这里的开始吧。反正也没有人会找到这里，不担心被叫到什么学工办。呵呵。
​      在新疆这个地方，一直有很多
                        
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                            博客提交时出现错误：
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